Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-27 8.805650e-05 0.000105 0.000123 0.000144 0.000166 0.000190 0.000218
2024-11-03 6.385312e-05 0.000085 0.000110 0.000139 0.000173 0.000210 0.000255
2024-11-10 5.263596e-05 0.000076 0.000104 0.000139 0.000181 0.000228 0.000285
2024-11-17 4.141464e-05 0.000066 0.000096 0.000136 0.000184 0.000241 0.000311
2024-11-24 3.614128e-05 0.000062 0.000095 0.000139 0.000194 0.000260 0.000343
2024-12-01 3.018382e-05 0.000056 0.000091 0.000139 0.000201 0.000275 0.000370
2024-12-08 2.412427e-05 0.000049 0.000084 0.000134 0.000200 0.000281 0.000386
2024-12-15 2.004313e-05 0.000044 0.000081 0.000134 0.000205 0.000293 0.000409
2024-12-22 1.666317e-05 0.000040 0.000077 0.000132 0.000208 0.000304 0.000429
2024-12-29 1.449143e-05 0.000038 0.000076 0.000135 0.000216 0.000320 0.000457
2025-01-05 1.185943e-05 0.000035 0.000073 0.000133 0.000218 0.000328 0.000476
2025-01-12 9.217629e-06 0.000030 0.000068 0.000129 0.000217 0.000333 0.000489
2025-01-19 8.108086e-06 0.000029 0.000069 0.000134 0.000229 0.000355 0.000526
2025-01-26 5.705439e-06 0.000025 0.000063 0.000129 0.000227 0.000358 0.000540
2025-02-02 4.544015e-06 0.000023 0.000061 0.000129 0.000233 0.000373 0.000567
2025-02-09 3.146598e-06 0.000020 0.000057 0.000126 0.000232 0.000378 0.000583
2025-02-16 2.626210e-06 0.000019 0.000057 0.000129 0.000242 0.000397 0.000617
2025-02-23 1.925231e-06 0.000017 0.000055 0.000129 0.000246 0.000409 0.000641
2025-03-02 1.179439e-06 0.000015 0.000051 0.000125 0.000244 0.000413 0.000654
2025-03-09 7.735494e-07 0.000013 0.000049 0.000124 0.000247 0.000423 0.000676
2025-03-16 4.761303e-07 0.000012 0.000047 0.000123 0.000250 0.000432 0.000697
2025-03-23 3.276778e-07 0.000011 0.000047 0.000125 0.000257 0.000449 0.000727
2025-03-30 1.624230e-07 0.000010 0.000045 0.000123 0.000258 0.000457 0.000746